Philadelphia – Ceteris non paribus

How the PA votes came in

I kept a running tally in a spreadsheet and posted updates to my facebook timeline. For posterity’s sake, I’m going to gather those posts here. The main complicating factor in my calculations was the number of votes remaining to be counted. Difficult to report what proportion a candidate needs when the denominator is unknown. You’ll see some comments on that in the entries below.

November 4, 2020

The latest addition was over 9k votes, with 79% going to Biden. If there are 1.057 million left to tally (extrapolating from the 85% estimated votes counted), and Biden got 79% of those, he’d win PA by 300,000 votes. If Biden got 65% of the remaining votes (and Trump got all the rest), Biden’d win PA by 2,700 votes.

NOTA BENE: A complicating factor is that I don’t know exactly how many votes are left to be tallied, and since the sources don’t report decimals, the remaining votes are bouncing around. We need to smooth, so I’ll just keep adding observations (if that means nothing to you, don’t worry about it).

5:22pm Added 17, 425 votes, 68.3% Biden
Biden needs 66% of remaining

5:39pm Added 9,696 votes, 75.5% Biden
needs 66% of remaining

5:58pm Added 26,525 votes, 70.5% Biden
needs 65% of remaining

6:18pm Added 37,700 votes, 76.7% Biden
needs 65% of remaining

6:44pm Added 33,186 votes, 69.0% Biden
needs 65% of remaining; T’s lead is 4.24 points

8:44pm Added 147,175 votes, 71.0% Biden
needs 63% of remaining,T lead is down to 3.13, approximately 3/4 mil left to count

10:37pm Added 56,219 votes, 72.1% Biden
T’s lead down to 2.7, Inquirer/AP also adjusted the estimates of votes left to be counted (more left than previously thought). According to new estimates, Biden needs 60% of remaining 944k votes. Even if that’s incorrect, and we have a lower total of say, 7mil votes in PA, Biden would win with 63% of remaining. But the average of the estimates of the total “expected” votes I’ve tallied this evening is 7.052 mil. And, of the total votes reported this evening, Biden took 71.6%.

NB 35,000 votes in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) cannot legally be counted until Friday.

November 5, 2020

7:29am 16,824 votes added, 67.1% Biden
Biden needs 59% of remaining votes, T’s lead 2.59 points
[13% of expected votes still to be counted]

Updating from my pickup’s tailgate
10:03am 45,502 added, 81.2% Biden
needs 58% of remaining, T’s lead 2.13

Another tailgate update
12:24pm 30,208 added, 83.6% Biden
needs 57% of remaining, T’s lead 1.79

1:56pm 10,504 added, 67.4% Biden
needs 57% of remaining, T’s lead 1.73

4:42pm 32,217 added, 71.5% Bidenneeds 56% of remaining votes, T’s lead 1.51NB: Since I started this tally yesterday, the lowest proportion of added votes to Biden was 67.10% (highest prop was 83.6%)

5:07pm 20,664 added, 65.6% Biden (that’s the lowest margin yet of added votes) needs 56% of remaining, T’s lead 1.40
According to Inquirer/AP, still have 12% of votes left to count

6:06pm 37,203 added, 65.8% Biden
T’s lead 1.20

NYT reporting similar numbers but saying 93% counted, while Inquirer says 89%. “Worse” case is NYT, for which Biden would need at least 59% of the remaining 7% of votes. If it’s 89% votes in, Biden needs 55% of remaining 11% of votes. (Annoyingly, NYT isn’t reporting Jorgensen votes, so their available info is incomplete.)

7:01pm 22,064 added, 81.4% Biden, T’s lead now 0.98 points
Wish I had a better sense of how many left to count, but apparent range of estimates suggests Biden safe with 57% of rest.

8:34pm 13,933 added, 70.6% Biden
T’s lead is 0.89 points, the margin is 58,281 votes

9:08pm 12,768 added, 75.7% Biden
T’s lead 0.79 points, margin is 51,622 votes

November 6, 2020

7:22am 64,430 votes added, 75.5% Biden
T’s lead now 0.27 points, 18,042 votes

Biggest unknown is how many votes left to count. Estimates vary widely. According to PA Secretary of State’s (very clunky) site, there are 163,501 mail-in ballots yet to be counted and 17 precincts from Philly yet to report Election Day counts. (Super duper wtf on the Philly precincts.)

Anyway, if Biden gets 56% of remaining votes (however many there are) he wins PA.

9:32 am 31,342 added, 87.4% Biden

With that, PA has flipped to Biden.

Biden’s lead is 5,596, or 0.08 points
And others reported additional returns the Inquirer hasn’t yet included, putting Biden ahead over 25k votes, with no remaining path for T.

1:10pm Added 18,828 votes, 67.5% Biden
Biden’s lead is 0.19 points, 12,497 votes

Somewhere around 120,000 or more votes yet to be counted. Nate Silver is reporting that Lehigh County’s 7,000 added were 68% Biden. Thank you, Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton! Lehigh County has a small but not insignificant minority population, including LatinX, and those are not generally Cuban (or Mexican), more frequently Puerto Rican or Central American. We know the Latinx population is much more politically diverse than Black Americans.

Subsequent returns only widened the margin until the race was called midday November 7.

A Tale of Two Groceries

My spouse and I have a deal. I grow food and he cooks it. Clearly, I got the waaaaaay better end of this stick. (I started playing Skyrim, and when he asked me why I cooked dishes to restore my character’s health, I replied, “I only cook in fake worlds.”)

As you might expect, his grocery shopping skills also vastly exceed my own. Despite my lists and my methodical row-by-row progression through the store, I invariably miss at least 4 or 5 items and need to backtrack. This remained true even when we had the “Two Body Problem” (academics living in different homes–in our case different states–because that’s where the jobs are) and I had to do the shopping and “cooking” for myself. I ate a lot of tater tots and toasted cheese sandwiches. I’d say I “cooked dinner” and he’d remind me that turning on an oven isn’t really cooking. Touché.

But thanks to his impeccable planning, there’ve been very few trips for groceries since ATSWD (all the sh*t went down). But his 2 most recent trips reveal a startling contrast in pandemic responsiveness.

Case 1. Trader Joe’s.

The line out the door is individuals standing at least 6 feet behind each other. The number of customers allowed in is closely monitored. The caches of used and sanitized carts are clearly demarcated. At the check-out, customers stand at least 6 feet away from the cashier ringing up the order. Yes, order, that’s the name of the game. And they actually have food. Including produce.

Case 2. ShopRite (operated by Brown’s)

The parking lot is packed and rather chaotic. There are a couple security guards inside the store, standing and watching. No employees monitor customer flows or encourage social distancing. There is no social distancing. Most employees are wearing gloves, but not masks. Many shelves are bare. There is very little produce. Shoppers huddle in dozens of lines waiting for their turn with the cashiers. It appears to be “business as usual” at ShopRite.

We’ve decided we won’t return to ShopRite until after this has all passed. Of course there are some items we cannot easily purchase elsewhere, but their stock is so low anyway. And it seems a pretty risky place to be.

It’s impossible to ignore the demographics. ShopRite is in a predominately-black area serving Philly residents who live in what has been deemed a food desert. Trader Joe’s is a short walk from chi-chi Rittenhouse Square.

Garden Centers and Gun Stores

Governor Wolf and Mayor Kenney have designated certain businesses essential. I agree with most of their choices, like for grocery stores, laundromats, and pharmacies. I agreed when Governor Wolf deemed gun stores non-essential. But of course the NRA (the front for the gun manufacturers) had to put their considerable money muscle on it post-haste and get those stores back open! Why do people need guns right now? “To protect all the toilet paper they’re hoarding.” Boom! Wish I’d come up with that gem, but I didn’t it. I’ll credit it “anonymous” since it disparages people with violent tendencies. Not giving you guys a target.

Garden centers have been deemed non-essential, but big box stores like Lowe’s and Home Depot can continue to sell ample GMO bio-cide laden plants and materials with no constraints. Meanwhile, industry-leading small businesses like Primex have been forced to shut down. And in an industry where at least 50% of revenue comes in April, May, and June, I worry that the small businesses will not recover.

If garden centers are non-essential, allow no stores to sell garden products.

Garden centers sell food-bearing plants! Apparently, food is only essential if someone else grows it, picks it, ships it, and puts it on a shelf for you.

If our primary intention is to prevent greater spread of COVID-19 by preventing non-essential activities, we should be doing a much better job of defining said activities. And not cave to rich companies who have too much power and money already.

Prepping for my R maps workshop

I’m thoroughly enjoying gathering data and writing the scripts for the maps I’m going to share in my upcoming Women in Tech Summit workshop. I’m starting with world-level maps, then will move to US and then more local. A main challenge is that there are lots of different ways to draw maps in R. My personal favorite is to use ggplot2. I have seen there is a choroplethr package, but I haven’t tried that yet.

Here’s my latest map:

It’s based on the wrld_simpl SpatialPolygonsDataFrame, and I merged in data from the World Bank Development Indicators. Next up: gender differences in economic and education outcomes across the US. Whee!

creating survey data for once

I have been using survey data in my work for about 2 decades, and I finally get the chance to submit information for a survey! I must say that it doesn’t seem as random as it’s supposed to be.

We own a house in a predominately-black, largely low income neighborhood, and we were asked to fill out a questionnaire for the American Crime Survey. Hm. And the request came with a crisp two dollar bill.